After A Dismal Performance Last Month, Diodes Incorporated Looks Set To Rally

Diodes Incorporated stock (NASDAQ

NDAQ
: DIOD) is down around 1% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was roughly unchanged over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned -1% and -1% respectively, underperforming the broader market on both occasions. This comes as a surprise after Diodes reported strong Q3 ’21 earnings in early November with revenue at $471 million, up significantly from $309 million in Q3 ’20. Additionally, with revenue growing faster than operating expenses, operating income more than doubled from $38 million in Q3 ’20 to $77 million in Q3 ’21. Finally, with a $13 million rise in other income and a roughly unchanged effective tax rate, combined with a drop in the outstanding share count, EPS nearly tripled from $0.52 to $1.52 over this period.

Now, is Diodes stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is a decent 56% chance of a rise in Diodes stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on DIOD Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about DIOD historical returns and comparison to peers, see Diodes Incorporated Stock Return.

Twenty-One Day: DIOD -1.1%, vs. S&P500 -0.2%; Underperformed market

(40% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• DIOD stock dropped 1.1% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 0.2%
• A change of -1.1% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 40% likelihood event, which has occurred 1010 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 1010 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 569 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: DIOD -1%, vs. S&P500 -0.7%; Underperformed market

(40% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• DIOD stock dropped 1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.7%
• A change of -1% or more over ten trading days is a 40% likelihood event, which has occurred 996 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 996 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 524 occasions
• This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: DIOD -1%, vs. S&P500 2%; Underperformed market

(38% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

• DIOD stock dropped 1% over a five-day trading period ending 12/10/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 2%
• A change of -1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 38% likelihood event, which has occurred 959 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 959 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 518 occasions
• This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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