AMC Entertainment Holdings Stock Drops: What’s Next?

BELLEVUE, UNITED STATES – 2021/07/24: The AMC logo is pictured at one of their chain\’s cinemas in … [+] Bellevue. AMC\’s stock price is down more than 30% in the last month. (Photo by Toby Scott/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)


SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

AMC Entertainment Holdings stock (NYSE: AMC) dropped 23% in just the last five days, completely underperforming the S&P 500 which was down only 1%. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, AMC stock is down significantly (-28% and 29%, respectively) and has underperformed the broader market on both the occasions. In fact, it was last week that the company reported its busiest day for ticket sales since the pandemic started, with some domestic ticket sites even crashing due to high volume. However, the stock still declined on fears of spread of the Omicron variant. The first case of Omicron variant in the U.S. was officially reported in California. If the variant manages to spread as rapidly as it did in South Africa, it could have major ramifications for the movie theater industry, in the form of low attendance or complete closure if lockdowns and restrictions are re-imposed. With AMC having started to see a recovery in its sales only recently, which is likely to help it manage its large debt load, another pandemic wave will severely hit its recovery prospects. These fears have led to the sharp drop in the stock recently.

To see how AMC stands in front of its peers, see our analysis on AMC Entertainment Holdings vs Cinemark.

Now, is AMC stock set to drop further or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 69% chance of a rise in AMC stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last eight years. See our analysis on AMC Stock Chance of Rise.

Chance of Rise


Trefis

Twenty-One Day: AMC -29%, vs. S&P500 -2.4%; Underperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 69% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • AMC stock decreased 29% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.4%
  • A change of -29% or more over twenty-one trading days is an event with a 5% likelihood, which has occurred 108 times out of 1983 in the last 8 years
  • Of these 108 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 74 occasions
  • This points to a 69% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: AMC -28%, vs. S&P500 -3.5%; Underperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • AMC stock decreased 28% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 3.5%
  • A change of -28% or more over ten trading days is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 52 times out of 1994 in the last 8 years
  • Of these 52 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 26 occasions
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: AMC -23%, vs. S&P500 -1.2%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

  • AMC stock decreased 23% over a five-day trading period ending 12/03/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.2%
  • A change of -23% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 39 times out of 1999 in the last 8 years
  • Of these 39 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 21 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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