Bitcoin Cycles Point To A Low

Photographer: Moe Zoyari/Bloomberg

© 2021 Bloomberg Finance LP

Forecasting cryptocurrency prices is a bit tough due to the short price history. There may not be enough data points to generate accurate cycles. For example, we do not have enough data to make use of seasonal tendencies. After some testing, I believe that the weekly and the monthly cycles below are currently the most informative. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust data series is used in this analysis.

The weekly cycle has been the most accurate for buy signals. All six buy signals have been profitable in the last year. Both the weekly and the monthly scans show that the 52-day cycle has been the most accurate. The weekly cycle has bottomed. The monthly cycle drifts into a low at the end of this month.

The 16th, tomorrow, is a projected turning point (PTP). Such points are generated by measuring time spans from past highs and lows. This PTP confirms the low in the weekly cycle.  

The 44-46 level is a reasonable price target.

Weekly Cycle

The accurate weekly cycle bottoms now.

Cycles Research Investments LLC

Monthly Cycle

The monthly cycle bottoms late in this month.

Cycles Research Investments LLC