Low-angle view of sign with logo on facade of technology company Pure Storage in the Silicon Valley … [+]
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Pure Storage Inc. stock (NYSE: PSTG) is up 13% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just a little under 4%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 6.6% and 6%, beating the market on both occasions. Pure Storage reported improved Q3 ’22 earnings in late November (PSTG’s fiscal year ends in January), with revenue rising from $411 million in Q3 ’21 to $563 million in Q3 ’22. Cost of sales and operating expenses rose at a slower rate, and this saw the operating loss shrink from $65 million to $18 million over this period. Lower taxes outweighed a rise in the outstanding share count, leading to EPS rising from -$0.28 in Q3 ’21 to -$0.10 in Q3 ’22.
Now, is PSTG stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is an average 48% chance of a rise in Pure Storage stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last six years. See our analysis on PSTG Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about PSTG historical returns and comparison to peers, see Pure Storage Stock Return.
Chance of Rise
Trefis
Twenty-One Day: PSTG 13%, vs. S&P500 3.9%; Outperformed market
(21% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- PSTG stock rose 13% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.9%
- A change of 13% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 21% likelihood event, which has occurred 322 times out of 1545 in the last 6 years
- Of these 322 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 155 occasions
- This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: PSTG 6%, vs. S&P500 2.2%; Outperformed market
(28% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- PSTG stock rose 6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.2%
- A change of 6% or more over ten trading days is a 28% likelihood event, which has occurred 439 times out of 1556 in the last 6 years
- Of these 439 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 227 occasions
- This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: PSTG 6.6%, vs. S&P500 4.8%; Outperformed market
(14% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)
- PSTG stock rose 6.6% over a five-day trading period ending 12/27/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.8%
- A change of 6.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 217 times out of 1561 in the last 6 years
- Of these 217 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 110 occasions
- This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
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