What’s Next For Arrow Electronics Stock After 11% Rise Last Month?

Arrow Electronics Inc. stock (NYSE: ARW) is up 11% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just a little over 5%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 0.6% and 10%, beating the market on both occasions. Arrow Electronics reported stellar Q3 ’21 earnings in early November, with revenue rising from $7.23 billion in Q3 ’20 to $8.51 billion in Q3 ’21, as demand picked up strongly. With COGS and operating expenses not rising as quickly, operating margins jumped from 3.3% to 4.8% over this period, a 1.5x rise. Combined with a more than a 7% drop in the outstanding share count, EPS rose strongly from $2.15 in Q3 ’20 $4.05 in Q3 ’21. The stock’s sharp rise was clearly a reaction to the company’s strong earnings growth.

Now, is Arrow Electronics stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a strong 62% chance of a rise in ARW stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on ARW Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about ARW historical returns and comparison to peers, see Arrow Electronics Stock Return.

Twenty-One Day: ARW 11%, vs. S&P500 5.3%; Outperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 62% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• ARW stock rose 11% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.3%
• A change of 11% or more over twenty-one trading days is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 204 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 204 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 127 occasions
• This points to a 62% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: ARW 10%, vs. S&P500 5%; Outperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• ARW stock rose 10% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5%
• A change of 10% or more over ten trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 90 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
• Of these 90 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 50 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: ARW 0.6%, vs. S&P500 0.1%; Outperformed market

(43% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next five days)

• ARW stock rose a marginal 0.6% over a five-day trading period ending 1/4/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was roughly unchanged
• A change of 0.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 43% likelihood event, which has occurred 1070 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
• Of these 1070 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 603 occasions
• This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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