What’s Next For National Vision Stock After A Large 20% Fall?

BRAZIL – 2020/11/04: In this photo illustration the National Vision Holdings logo seen displayed on … [+] a smartphone. (Photo Illustration by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The stock price of National Vision, an optical retailer, has seen a fall of around 20% over the last five as well as the last twenty-one trading days. The company recently announced its Q3 results, which were actually better than the street estimates. National Vision’s revenue of $518 million was slightly above the $512 million consensus estimate, while its adjusted earnings of $0.38 on a per share basis were well above the $0.25 average of analyst forecasts.

Despite an upbeat Q3, EYE stock plunged to lower levels, primarily due to its full-year outlook. The company stated that it expects full-year 2021 sales of $2.05 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.30, at mid-point of the guided range. This compares with $2.07 billion and $1.34 consensus estimates, respectively. Furthermore, one of the Wall Street analysts downgraded EYE stock owing to rising costs and its impact on margins in 2022.

But now that EYE stock has seen a large fall, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a strong chance of a rise in EYE stock over the next month. Out of 41 instances in the last four years that EYE stock saw a twenty-one day fall of 20% or more, 37 of them resulted in EYE stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 37 out of 41, or about a 90% chance of a rise in EYE stock over the coming month. See our analysis on National Vision Stock Chances of Rise for more details. Even if we were to look at the $61 average of analyst forecast price estimate for EYE stock, it reflects over a 20% premium to the current market price of $50.

While EYE stock may see higher levels going forward, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out National Vision Stock Comparison With Peers to see how EYE stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last four years data

  • After moving -20.8% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 60% of the occasions.
  • After moving -18.6% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 35% of the occasions
  • After moving -20% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 90% of the occasions.

21 Day Return


National Vision Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: JNJ highest at 1.3%; EYE lowest at -20.8%
  • Ten-Day Return: IART highest at 1.4%; EYE lowest at -18.6%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: COO highest at 4.9%; EYE lowest at -20.0%

While EYE stock may see higher levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for United Therapeutics vs Quest Diagnostics.

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