What’s Next For Novavax Stock After A Large 48% Rise In A Month?

UKRAINE – 2020/11/24: In this photo illustration a medical syringe and a vial depicting fake … [+] coronavirus vaccine seen in front of Novavax US vaccine development company logo. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The stock price of Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) has seen a solid 18% rise in just five trading sessions, while it is up a large 48% in a month (twenty-one trading days). The recent rise can be attributed to Novavax receiving an emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine shot in the Philippines. Furthermore, the European Union’s drug regulator is soon expected to come up with its decision on the Novavax Covid-19 vaccine.

Note that Europe at large is seeing another surge in new Covid-19 cases, accounting for two-thirds of global new cases. This has meant increased restrictions for several countries, with Austria imposing a lockdown earlier this week. Even in the U.S. the Covid-19 cases, after seeing a steady fall between mid-September and the end of October, have been rising over the past few weeks. Overall, the vaccination rate for Europe stands at around 57% and 59% in the U.S. currently, and given the surge in cases, investors have again turned their focus on vaccine stocks. For instance, Moderna stock has also gained 18% in a week.

But now that NVAX stock has surged a large 48% in a month , will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise in NVAX stock over the next month. Out of 172 instances in the last ten years that NVAX stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 48% or more, 105 of them resulted in NVAX stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 105 out of 172, or about a 61% chance of a rise in NVAX stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Novavax Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

While NVAX stock may see higher levels going forward, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out Novavax Stock Comparison With Peers to see how NVAX stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last four years data

  • After moving 18% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 45% of the occasions.
  • After moving 19% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 48% of the occasions
  • After moving 48% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 61% of the occasions.

YTD Return


Novavax Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: MRNA highest at 18.0%; VRTX lowest at -0.8%
  • Ten-Day Return: NVAX highest at 18.6%; AMGN lowest at -3.4%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: NVAX highest at 48.3%; MRNA lowest at -20.9%

While NVAX stock may see higher levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for United Therapeutics vs Quest Diagnostics.

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