Will Centene Stock Continue To Make Fresh Highs?

[Updated: Dec 14, 2021] CNC Stock Rise

The stock price of Centene (NYSE: CNC), a full-line managed services company which services both government sponsored and private insurance health care programs, has seen a rise of 4% in a month (twenty-one trading days), while it is up 9% in a week, near to its all-time high levels of around $80. The recent rise in CNC stock can be attributed to the company’s multiple announcements on its future outlook.

Firstly, Centene

CNC
provided an upbeat guidance for full-year 2022, with revenues expected to be $136 billion, and earnings to be $5.40, at the mid-point of its provided range. Both of these figures are slightly above the consensus estimates. Secondly, the company announced “Value Creation Plan” aimed at portfolio optimization. The company will review divesting its international business to focus on its core business. Finally, the company also said that it plans to increase share buybacks from 2022, and it expects 2024 earnings to be around $7.63 on a per share and adjusted basis, at mid-point of the provided range, reflecting a large 50% growth from its expected EPS of $5.10 in 2021. ^[1] Note that the forecast includes Centene’s pending acquisition of Magellan Health. These developments cheered investors, evident from the stock appreciation over the last five trading days.

Now that CNC stock is up 4% in a month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise in CNC stock over the next month. Out of 1090 instances in the last ten years that CNC stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 4% or more, 653 of them resulted in CNC stock rising over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 653 out of 1090, or about 60% chance of a rise in CNC stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Centene Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.

While CNC stock may see higher levels going forward, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out Centene Stock Comparison With Peers to see how CNC stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

• After moving 8.9% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 49% of the occasions.
• After moving 5.9% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 63% of the occasions
• After moving 3.8% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 60% of the occasions.

This pattern suggests that there is marginally higher chances of a fall in CNC stock over the next five days, but the stock is likely to rise over the next ten days and one month, continuing to make fresh highs.

Centene Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

• Five-Day Return: CNC highest at 8.9%; UNH lowest at 3.9%
• Ten-Day Return: HUM highest at 8.5%; MOH lowest at 1.1%
• Twenty-One Days Return: UNH highest at 4.5%; MOH lowest at -3.7%

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