The stock price of Novocure, a company working on an innovative cancer treatment alternative using electric fields, has seen a fall of 15% in a week, while it is down 22% over the last month, following its downbeat Q3 results. The company reported sales of $134 million, up 4% y-o-y, but short of $141 consensus estimates, and its loss of $0.13 on a per share basis was also higher than the consensus estimate of $0.07 loss per share. Currently, most of the revenues generated by the company are from glioblastoma and investors are now concerned about the GBM revenue growth rate.
Now, the overall GBM market size of $2.1 billion (in 2020) itself is relatively small. But, what is important for NVCR is its final data from a late-stage study targeting non-small cell lung cancer. This data is expected to be released in 2022, along with a data from two phase two studies targeting gastric cancer, followed by data from a late-stage study targeting ovarian cancer in 2023. These are much larger markets compared to GBM, implying that the Novocure treatment has massive potential, if the data is positive and the company successfully secures regulatory approval.
But now that NVCR stock has seen a large 22% fall in a month , will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a good chance of a rise in NVCR stock over the next month. Out of 131 instances in the last six years that NVCR stock saw a twenty-one day fall of 22% or more, 91 of them resulted in NVCR stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 91 out of 131, or about a 69% chance of a rise in NVCR stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Novocure Stock Chances of Rise for more details.
While NVCR stock may see higher levels going forward, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out Novocure Stock Comparison With Peers to see how NVCR stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last four years data
- After moving -15% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 48% of the occasions.
- After moving -12% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 54% of the occasions
- After moving -22% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 69% of the occasions.
Novocure Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: LEGN highest at -0.8%; SBTX lowest at -18.0%
- Ten-Day Return: LEGN highest at 8.8%; SBTX lowest at -16.8%
- Twenty-One Days Return: SNSE highest at 3.4%; SBTX lowest at -22.6%
While NVCR stock may see higher levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for United Therapeutics vs Quest Diagnostics.
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